Daily Probabilities - Establishing Bias for the Day:

Premise: All Markets look for a direction early in the day.

predicated on futures market where volume comes in at a specific time of the day, the regular day session open

Initial Move

• 50% of the time the initial move reverses... so you need to look at the bars a little later in the day
• Most of these initial moves are a test of previous day(s) s/r
• These initial moves often form the wick on the candle of the day (since shaved candle bodies are rare)
• When a market transitions from a range to a trend, the implication is that there are institutions that need to accomplish some buying. Thus volume indications should be directional as the bars are formed.
• Trading late in the day you can look for the daily candle come to a logical conclusion based on prior price action and context of daily chart.

Daily Progression

• The first bar has a 20% chance of being the high or the low of the day
• By the close of the 7th bar there's a 50% chance that the high or the low is in
• By the close of the 12th bar there's a 70% chance that the day has set its high or low
• By the close of the 18th bar there's a 90% chance that the day has set its high or low (18th bar is a close on the 15m/30m and progress of 2nd bar)

Bull Bars:

• 90% of the time the low tail of a bull bar came early in the day via a early reversal on the 5m. The top wick is created by a late day pull back
• 10% of the time the bottom tail is created by a late in the day reversal up that breaks the open and creates a bull bar for the day

Doji Bars:

• Tails in a doji bar are formed at any time.
• The bottom or top wick can be formed at the beginning or end of the day.